Plant
- Production plan
- Line utilisation
- Changeovers
Why is inventory increasing
when sales aren’t?
A practical investigation into why working capital can rise even when demand does not.
The Business Question
Inventory is going up. Sales are flat or declining. Why is this happening, and what can we do about it?
Inventory ↑
Sales →
↗Something else is changing.
Inventory is moving differently from sales.
Don’t Start with AI. Start with the Business.
Inventory is the result of many moving parts. Even when demand is stable, a combination of factors can build up inventory.
01Demand forecasts
02Procurement & buying
03Production & supply
04MOQ & lot sizes
05Lead time & delivery
06Safety stock
07Channel & SKU mix
What We Look At
Inventory is not a single number. It lives across the value chain.
SKU
Warehouse
- Stock levels
- Ageing
- Transfers
Channel
- Retail
- Distributor
- Direct
INVENTORY
▥Sales
↔▤Cash
The Data Tells a Clear Story
A simple view can reveal a complex problem.
Inventory vs Sales (illustrative)
InventorySales
200150100500
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Common Drivers
1
Forecast errorDemand vs plan
2
MOQ / buying behaviourLarger order sizes
3
Slow-moving SKUsLifecycle or assortment
4
Production mixChange in product mix
5
Channel inventoryPush vs pull
What Would I Do Monday Morning?
Five questions to start with.
- 01Which SKUs created the increase?
- 02In which plants / warehouses?
- 03Is demand actually slowing?
- 04What purchasing decisions created it?
- 05How much cash can realistically be released?
The Role of AI
AI doesn’t replace business thinking. It helps us go deeper, faster and with more confidence.
- 01Business Question
We start with a clear business question to focus the analysis and outcomes.
- 02Data
We gather and organize relevant data from multiple sources.
- 03Measures
We define the right measures and metrics to evaluate performance.
- 04Causes
We use AI to identify key drivers and underlying causes.
- 05Model & Recommendation
We apply models to identify patterns, predict outcomes and generate actionable recommendations.
- 06Human Decision
You review the insight and make the final decision, with AI as your partner.
“The real value of AI is not in asking a question, but in helping you ask a better one.”— Orane Insights
A MORE VALUABLE TOMORROW. TOGETHER.Don’t Start With AI.
Don’t Start With AI.
Start With a Business Problem.
Bring us a problem, a decision or an exception that matters. We’ll work backwards from the business outcome to the context, data and intelligence required.